Business Standard

FinMin maintains 6.5% GDP development estimate for FY24, says ‘outlook is vivid’

Protecting in thoughts that financial actions within the July-September interval (Q2) are shaping up nicely, the Finance Ministry saved its estimate of the nation’s actual GDP development in 2023-24 (FY24) unchanged at 6.5 p.c.

Nonetheless, it warned that the monsoon deficit in August could impression kharif and rabi crops, and mentioned rising crude oil costs must be monitored.

In its month-to-month financial assessment, the Finance Ministry mentioned the dangers have been offset by vivid spots in corporations

Profitability, capital formation within the personal sector, financial institution credit score development, and actions within the building sector.

“India’s financial outlook for FY24 stays vivid. Financial exercise has maintained its momentum. HFIs (Excessive Frequency Indicators) recommend that Q2 FY24 can also be going nicely. In abstract, we stay snug with our estimates of actual GDP development of % 6.5 per cent for FY24 with related dangers.

After robust development of seven.8 per cent within the first quarter from April to June, many financial forecasters have raised their development forecast for the Indian financial system to round 6.5 per cent.

The assessment notes that robust home demand for consumption and funding led to the next GDP development price within the June quarter. “The regular decline in city unemployment has contributed to protecting personal consumption robust within the financial system. As boosting consumption has led to larger demand for items and providers, each the manufacturing and providers sectors witnessed robust development in manufacturing and worth added within the first quarter of the 12 months.” Finance 24.

The assessment mentioned August’s monsoon deficit was partially offset in September and costs of some meals gadgets that pushed inflation above 7 p.c in July have been starting to ease.

The Ministry of Finance mentioned that the tax funds submitted for the second quarter affirm that the personal sector is in good well being and investing. The assessment mentioned that restructuring the stability sheet put corporations in a sound place to develop their investments and grow to be extra resilient to financial shocks. “The wholesome efficiency of the company sector has validated buyers and boosted their confidence within the Indian development story.”

The ministry mentioned {that a} inventory market correction, following a delayed correction within the international inventory market, represents an ever-present danger.

“The current rise in oil costs is an rising concern. However there are not any alarms but.” The month-to-month assessment added that the yield on US 10-year bonds has exceeded 4.3 p.c, and the S&P 500 just isn’t very removed from its all-time excessive. .

The Ministry is assured that the impression of those developments on India’s core financial exercise will likely be comparatively contained.

Concerning the banking sector, the report mentioned that a wide range of indicators – decrease non-performing belongings, improved capital-to-risk-weighted belongings ratio, larger return on belongings and return on fairness – level to elevated sector resilience. “As of March 2023, information on NBFCs indicated an enchancment of their profitability and risk-taking behaviour. Furthermore, as per RBI estimates for July 2023, there was constant and broad-based development in non-food financial institution credit score to scheduled industrial banks since April 2022.


Foremost dangers: Seasonal deficit in August, rising crude oil costs, and inventory market correction

Vibrant spots, highlights, essential spots: Company profitability, capital formation within the personal sector, financial institution credit score development, and exercise within the building sector

(tags for translation)MoF

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